000 AXNT20 KNHC 301034 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT WED 30 JUL 2003 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N INCLUDING NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0945 UTC. SPECIAL FEATURES... NONE. TROPICAL WAVES/ITCZ... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 24W S OF 16N MOVING W 15 KT. A 1012 MB LOW HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 9N24W. THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVERNIGHT AND HAS THE POTENTIAL OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION IS BANDING ON THE WESTERN EDGE WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF A LINE FROM 11N22W 10N27W TO 8N27W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 36W S OF 16W MOVING W 10 KT. WEAK CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH THE ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION W OF THE WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE/ ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN A 45 NM RADIUS OF 12N37.5W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 50W S OF 20N MOVING W 10-15 KT. HIGH AMPLITUDE WAVE WITH A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS. WEAK ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION IS WITHIN THE ITCZ. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 65W/66W S OF 14N MOVING W 10 KT. WEAK WAVE IN THE CARIBBEAN WITH ALL OF THE ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 84W/85W S OF 21N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE CONTINUES TO INTERACT WITH UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM LIMITING SIGNATURE CURVATURE. AXIS OF ITCZ-RELATED CLOUDS/CONVECTION IS CENTERED ALONG 8N12W 7N26W 10N50W 7N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 24W TO 28W AND WITHIN 45/60 NM OF A LINE FROM 5N26W TO 6N31W. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 75 NM OF THE AXIS E OF 23W TO THE COAST OF AFRICA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 46W TO 54W. MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL SYNOPTIC FEATURES... BROAD ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED IN THE E PACIFIC WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OVER MEXICO AND THE GULF OF MEXICO S OF 27N W OF 95W. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE SE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 23N88W WITH CYCLONIC FLOW COVERING THE SE GULF AND THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM 18N TO 24N BETWEEN 82W AND 91W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE NE GULF OF MEXICO N OF 26N FROM 82W TO 91W WITH THE CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER THE W FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 30N87W. SMALL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST NEAR 31N81W WITH CYCLONIC FLOW WITHIN A 120/150 NM RADIUS. RIDGE AXIS IN THE W ATLANTIC EXTENDS FROM 21N69W NNW TO 34N75W WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WITHIN 200/300 NM OF THE AXIS. BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 31N52W WITH A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING W TO 30N65W. CYCLONIC FLOW IS WITHIN 350 NM OF THE AXIS. BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN AND THE W TROPICAL ATLANTIC S OF 21N FROM 60W TO 82W. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN WITHIN 200 NM OF A LINE FROM 14N60W TO 16N74W. MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS WITHIN 300/350 NM OF A LINE FROM 22N48W TO 14N60W. ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 12N45W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NE TO 15N45W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS WITHIN 200 NM OF THE AXIS. WEAKENING CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER THE E TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 19N34W WITH CYCLONIC FLOW WITHIN A 180 NM RADIUS. TROUGH IS OVER THE NE ATLANTIC N OF 27N FROM 14W TO 28W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE E ATLANTIC N OF 23N E OF 40W. SURFACE SYNOPTIC FEATURES... A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 10N75W. HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE ATLANTIC N OF 12N WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH 32N57W WSW TO 23N96W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. SIGNIFICANT CLOUDS/CONVECTION... GULF OF MEXICO... HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 28N TO THE N GULF COAST BETWEEN 88W AND 90W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS THE NE GULF N OF 27N E OF 90W. CARIBBEAN SEA... SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF 11N TO INLAND OVER COLOMBIA AND PANAMA FROM 75W TO 79W AND FROM 10N TO INLAND OVER PANAMA FROM 80W TO 82W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OF A LINE FROM 10N82W TO INLAND OVER NICARAGUA NEAR 11N84W. SIMILAR CONVECTION COVERS ALL OF LAKE MARACAIBO. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN S OF 22N W OF 80W. TROPICAL ATLANTIC... NONE. AFRICAN DUST PREVIOUSLY NOTED IS NOT OBSERVABLE ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC... SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF A LINE FROM 26N70W ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TO 22N75W. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF A LINE FROM 28N69W TO 32N71W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE N OF 26N FROM 58W TO 64W AND N OF 28N FROM 76W TO 79W. $$ WALLACE