000 WTPZ35 KNHC 070231 TCPEP5 BULLETIN HURRICANE NEWTON ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152016 900 PM MDT TUE SEP 06 2016 ...CENTER OF NEWTON MOVING INTO THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA... ...STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND NORTHWESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.3N 112.0W ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM E OF SANTA ROSALIA MEXICO ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM SW OF GUAYMAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Government of Mexico has discontinued the Hurricane Warning for the west coast of the Baja California peninsula and discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning south of Puerto San Andresito. The Government of Mexico has discontinued the Hurricane Warning for the east coast of the Baja California peninsula and has extended the Tropical Storm Warning south to Loreto. The Government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for the northwest coast of mainland Mexico south of Topolobampo. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Guaymas to Puerto Libertad A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Puerto San Andresito to Punta Abreojos * Loreto to Bahia San Juan Bautista * Topolobampo to Guaymas For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. In the southwestern United States, see products issued by your local National Weather Service office for information on possible heavy rains, flooding, and high winds. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Newton was located near latitude 27.3 North, longitude 112.0 West. Newton is moving toward the north near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this motion should continue tonight. A turn toward the north-northeast is expected on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Newton will move across the Gulf of California tonight and make landfall along the coast of northwestern Mexico in the hurricane warning area early Wednesday. After landfall, the center of Newton will move inland over northwestern Mexico and move into southeastern Arizona by Wednesday afternoon. Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected before landfall in northwestern Mexico early Wednesday, with rapid weakening expected afterward. Newton is forecast to weaken to a tropical storm shortly after landfall and dissipate by early Thursday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km). A wind gust of 44 mph (71 km/h) was recently reported in Topolobampo. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: For the Mexican mainland, hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area by early Wednesday morning, and preparations to protect life and property should be complete. Tropical storm conditions will continue spreading northward tonight within the warning area in northwestern Mexico. For the Baja California peninsula, tropical storm conditions will gradually subside during the next few hours. Tropical storm conditions could spread into portions of southeastern Arizona by Wednesday afternoon. RAINFALL: Newton is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 8 to 12 inches over the Mexican state of Baja California Sur, and 4 to 8 inches over northern Sinaloa and Sonora states through Wednesday. Isolated maximum amounts of 18 inches are possible in Baja California Sur. Moisture associated with Newton is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches with locally higher amounts over southeastern Arizona and southern New Mexico through Thursday. In all of these locations, heavy rain could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides, especially in mountainous terrain. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding near and to the east of the track of the center within the hurricane warning area. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Elsewhere, elevated water levels are expected in areas of onshore wind. SURF: Large swells generated by Newton are expected to affect the coast of southwestern Mexico through tonight, but will begin to subside on Wednesday. Large swells are occurring along the coast of Baja California Sur and should spread northward through the Gulf of California tonight and Wednesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1200 AM MDT. Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Brennan