000 WTPZ35 KNHC 050554 TCPEP5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM NEWTON INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152016 100 AM CDT MON SEP 05 2016 ...NEWTON HEADED TOWARD BAJA CALIFORNIA... ...HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE OVER SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.3N 106.0W ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 460 MI...745 KM SE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * La Paz to Santa Fe, including Cabo San Lucas A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Manzanillo to Cabo Corrientes A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * north of La Paz to San Evaristo * north of Santa Fe to Cabo San Lazaro A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * north of San Evaristo to Loreto * north of Cabo San Lazaro to Puerto San Andresito * Mazatlan to Huatabampito A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm- force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Newton was located near latitude 17.3 North, longitude 106.0 West. Newton is moving toward the north-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A northwestward or north-northwestward motion with an increase in forward speed is expected later today and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Newton will be near or over the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula Tuesday morning. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next 36 hours or so, and Newton could be near hurricane intensity when it approaches the extreme southern Baja California peninsula Tuesday morning. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast within the hurricane warning area by Tuesday morning. Winds are expected to first reach tropical storm strength by late tonight, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area on Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning area along the southwestern coast of Mexico by tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch areas on Tuesday. RAINFALL: Newton is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 5 to 10 inches for coastal portions of the Mexican states of Michoacan, Jalisco, Nayarit, Sinaloa, as well as the state of Baja California Sur, with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches through Tuesday. These rains could produce life-threatening flash floods and mud slides, especially in areas of mountainous terrain. SURF: Swells generated by Newton are expected to increase near the coast of southwestern Mexico and the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula during the next day or two. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi