000 WTPZ35 KNHC 050252 TCPEP5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM NEWTON ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152016 1000 PM CDT SUN SEP 04 2016 ...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS TO TROPICAL STORM NEWTON... ...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.0N 105.7W ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 490 MI...790 KM SE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Government of Mexico has upgraded the Hurricane Watch to a Hurricane Warning for the extreme southern Baja California peninsula from La Paz to Santa Fe, including Cabo San Lucas. A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the southwestern coast of Mexico from Manzanillo to Cabo Corrientes. The Government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the east coast of the Baja California peninsula north of San Evaristo to Loreto, and for the west coast of the Baja California peninsula north of Cabo San Lazaro to Puerto San Andresito. A Tropical Storm Watch has also been issued for the west coast of mainland Mexico from Mazatlan to Huatabampito. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * La Paz to Santa Fe, including Cabo San Lucas A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Manzanillo to Cabo Corrientes A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * north of La Paz to San Evaristo * north of Santa Fe to Cabo San Lazaro A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * north of San Evaristo to Loreto * north of Cabo San Lazaro to Puerto San Andresito * Mazatlan to Huatabampito A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm- force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Newton was located near latitude 17.0 North, longitude 105.7 West. Newton is moving toward the north-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A northwestward or north-northwestward motion with an increase in forward speed is expected on Monday and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Newton will be near or over the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula Tuesday morning. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 36 hours or so, and Newton could be near hurricane intensity when it approaches the extreme southern Baja California peninsula Tuesday morning. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast within the hurricane warning area by Tuesday morning. Winds are expected to first reach tropical storm strength by late Monday night, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area on Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning area along the southwestern coast of Mexico on Monday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch areas on Tuesday. RAINFALL: Newton is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 5 to 10 inches for coastal portions of the Mexican states of Michoacan, Jalisco, Nayarit, Sinaloa, as well as the state of Baja California Sur, with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches through Tuesday. These rains could produce life-threatening flash floods and mud slides, especially in areas of mountainous terrain. SURF: Swells generated by Newton are expected to increase near the coast of southwestern Mexico and the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Berg