000 WTPZ35 KNHC 171456 TCPEP5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ODILE ADVISORY NUMBER 30 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152014 800 AM PDT WED SEP 17 2014 ...ODILE WEAKENING WHILE IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA... ...HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.6N 113.3W ABOUT 50 MI...85 KM SSE OF PUERTO PENASCO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ALL OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...AND ALSO FOR MAINLAND MEXICO SOUTH OF BAHIA KINO. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MAINLAND MEXICO FROM BAHIA KINO TO PUERTO PENASCO INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN NORTHWESTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ODILE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ODILE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.3 WEST. ODILE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ODILE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING...AND MOVE INTO NORTHWESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED UNTIL LANDFALL...BUT RAPID WEAKENING WILL OCCUR AFTER ODILE MOVES INLAND OVER MAINLAND MEXICO. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM FROM THE CENTER. DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...A WIND GUST TO 41 MPH...66 KM/H...WAS REPORTED AT CABORCA IN THE MEXICAN STATE OF SONORA. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA TODAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY TONIGHT AFTER ODILE MOVES INLAND. STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE COULD STILL PRODUCE COASTAL FLOODING IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS...AND ALSO FROM NEAR SAN FELIPE AROUND THE FAR NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA COAST TO NEAR PUERTO PENASCO. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DAMAGING WAVES. RAINFALL...ODILE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 18 INCHES ACROSS THE MEXICAN STATE OF SONORA. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO RESULT IN LIFE- THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS...A RAINFALL TOTAL OF 2.57 INCHES...62 MM...WAS OBSERVED AT CABORCA MEXICO. MOISTURE AHEAD OF ODILE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 9 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA AND SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO...POSSIBLY EXTENDING INTO WESTERN TEXAS THROUGH FRIDAY. THESE RAINS COULD RESULT IN LIFE- THREATENING FLASH FLOODS. SURF...SWELLS FROM ODILE WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...1100 AM PDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER STEWART