000 WTPZ35 KNHC 160843 TCPEP5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ODILE ADVISORY NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152014 200 AM PDT TUE SEP 16 2014 ...ODILE BRINGING STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS TO THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.4N 112.7W ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM WNW OF SANTA ROSALIA MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS REPLACED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM BAHIA DE LOS ANGELES TO SAN FELIPE WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALONG THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM BAHIA KINO TO PUERTO LIBERTAD HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA SOUTH OF PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SOUTH OF LORETO HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED AND THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO SOUTH OF HUATABAMPITO HAS ALSO BEEN DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO TO SAN JOSE DE LAS PALOMAS * THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM LORETO TO SAN FELIPE * MAINLAND MEXICO FROM HUATABAMPITO TO PUERTO LIBERTAD A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA NORTH OF SAN JOSE DE LAS PALOMAS TO CABO SAN QUINTIN INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND NORTHWESTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ODILE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ODILE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.7 WEST. ODILE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS MORNING. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH AN ADDITIONAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ODILE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER OR NEAR THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH TODAY...AND MOVE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA TONIGHT AND INTO NORTHERN MAINLAND MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND ODILE IS LIKELY TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION EARLY WEDNESDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES...240 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 MB...29.30 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD OVER PORTIONS OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT WIND SPEEDS ATOP AND ON THE WINDWARD SIDES OF HILLS AND MOUNTAINS ARE OFTEN UP TO 30 PERCENT STRONGER THAN INDICATED IN THIS ADVISORY...AND IN SOME ELEVATED LOCATIONS CAN BE EVEN GREATER. STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE COULD STILL PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DAMAGING WAVES. RAINFALL...ODILE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF AROUND 18 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...AND OVER COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATE OF SONORA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. ABUNDANT MOISTURE AHEAD OF ODILE WILL INCREASE HEAVY RAINS AND THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SURF...SWELLS FROM ODILE WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...500 AM PDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BROWN