000 WTPZ35 KNHC 160235 TCPEP5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ODILE ADVISORY NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152014 800 PM PDT MON SEP 15 2014 ...ODILE WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM... ...STILL PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.6N 112.1W ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM NW OF LORETO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE WARNING TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM CABO SAN LAZARO TO PUNTA ABREOJOS...AND FOR THE EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM SAN EVARISTO TO SANTA ROSALIA. THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR MAINLAND MEXICO SOUTH OF TOPOLOBAMPO. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM CABO SAN LAZARO TO SAN JOSE DE LAS PALOMAS * THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM SAN EVARISTA TO BAHIA DE LOS ANGELES * MAINLAND MEXICO FROM TOPOLOBAMPO TO BAHIA KINO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA NORTH OF SAN JOSE DE LAS PALOMAS TO CABO SAN QUINTIN * THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF BAHIA DE LOS ANGELES TO SAN FELIPE * MAINLAND MEXICO FROM NORTH OF BAHIA KINO TO PUERTO LIBERTAD INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND NORTHWESTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ODILE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ODILE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.1 WEST. ODILE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H...AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH TUESDAY...AND MOVE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA ON WEDNESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND ODILE IS LIKELY TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES...260 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB...29.24 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD OVER PORTIONS OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT WIND SPEEDS ATOP AND ON THE WINDWARD SIDES OF HILLS AND MOUNTAINS ARE OFTEN UP TO 30 PERCENT STRONGER THAN INDICATED IN THIS ADVISORY...AND IN SOME ELEVATED LOCATIONS CAN BE EVEN GREATER. STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE COULD STILL PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES. RAINFALL...ODILE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF AROUND 18 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH FRIDAY. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATES OF SINALOA AND SONORA. SURF...SWELLS FROM ODILE WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...1100 PM PDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER PASCH