000 WTPZ35 KNHC 152042 TCPEP5 BULLETIN HURRICANE ODILE ADVISORY NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152014 200 PM PDT MON SEP 15 2014 ...ODILE WEAKENING INLAND OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA... ...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING CONTINUE TO POSE SERIOUS THREATS... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.5N 111.8W ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM SW OF LORETO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ...AND DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM NORTH OF PUNTA ABREOJOS TO PUNTA EUGENIA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM NORTH OF SANTA FE TO PUNTA ABREOJOS ON THE WEST COAST...AND FROM NORTH OF LA PAZ TO SANTA ROSALIA ON THE EAST COAST A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF SANTA ROSALIA TO BAHIA DE LOS ANGELES * THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF PUNTA EUGENIA TO SAN JOSE DE LAS PALOMAS * MAINLAND MEXICO FROM ALTATA TO BAHIA KINO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA NORTH OF SAN JOSE DE LAS PALOMAS TO CABO SAN QUINTIN * THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF BAHIA DE LOS ANGELES TO SAN FELIPE * MAINLAND MEXICO FROM NORTH OF BAHIA KINO TO PUERTO LIBERTAD INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND NORTHWESTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ODILE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ODILE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.8 WEST. ODILE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H...AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH TUESDAY...AND MOVE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA ON WEDNESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. CONTINUED WEAKENING IS WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND ODILE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM EARLY TUESDAY AND TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY WEDNESDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES...295 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 975 MB...28.80 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA IN ADVANCE OF THE HURRICANE CONDITIONS...AND OVER THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA IN MAINLAND MEXICO THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT WIND SPEEDS ATOP AND ON THE WINDWARD SIDES OF HILLS AND MOUNTAINS ARE OFTEN UP TO 30 PERCENT STRONGER THAN INDICATED IN THIS ADVISORY...AND IN SOME ELEVATED LOCATIONS CAN BE EVEN GREATER. STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES. RAINFALL...ODILE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF AROUND 18 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH FRIDAY. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATES OF SINALOA AND SONORA. SURF...SWELLS FROM ODILE WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND ARE AFFECTING SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...500 PM PDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER PASCH