000 WTPZ35 KNHC 151749 TCPEP5 BULLETIN HURRICANE ODILE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 22A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152014 1100 AM PDT MON SEP 15 2014 ...ODILE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT REMAINS INLAND OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA... ...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING POSE SERIOUS THREATS... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.1N 111.6W ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM ENE OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM S OF LORETO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM PUNTA ABREOJOS TO SANTA ROSALIA A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM NORTH OF PUNTA ABREOJOS TO PUNTA EUGENIA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF SANTA ROSALIA TO BAHIA DE LOS ANGELES * THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF PUNTA EUGENIA TO SAN JOSE DE LAS PALOMAS * MAINLAND MEXICO FROM ALTATA TO BAHIA KINO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA NORTH OF SAN JOSE DE LAS PALOMAS TO CABO SAN QUINTIN * THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF BAHIA DE LOS ANGELES TO SAN FELIPE * MAINLAND MEXICO FROM NORTH OF BAHIA KINO TO PUERTO LIBERTAD INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND NORTHWESTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ODILE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ODILE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.6 WEST. ODILE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H...AND A NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH DECREASING FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ODILE WILL MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STEADY WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND ODILE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BY TUESDAY MORNING. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 965 MB...28.50 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA IN ADVANCE OF THE HURRICANE CONDITIONS...AND OVER THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA IN MAINLAND MEXICO THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT WIND SPEEDS ATOP AND ON THE WINDWARD SIDES OF HILLS AND MOUNTAINS ARE OFTEN UP TO 30 PERCENT STRONGER THAN INDICATED IN THIS ADVISORY...AND IN SOME ELEVATED LOCATIONS CAN BE EVEN GREATER. STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES. RAINFALL...ODILE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF AROUND 18 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH FRIDAY. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATES OF SINALOA AND SONORA. A 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL OF 5.72 INCHES...146 MM...HAS BEEN REPORTED AT LA PAZ MEXICO SO FAR. SURF...SWELLS FROM ODILE WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND ARE AFFECTING SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER STEWART