000 WTPZ35 KNHC 150853 TCPEP5 BULLETIN HURRICANE ODILE ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152014 200 AM PDT MON SEP 15 2014 ...ODILE BATTERING THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.7N 110.4W ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM NNW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA ABOUT 140 MI...230 KM ESE OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...942 MB...27.82 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS REPLACED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM LORETO TO SANTA ROSALIA WITH A HURRICANE WARNING. THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA EUGENIA TO SAN JOSE DE LAS PALOMAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM SANTA ROSALIA TO BAHIA DE LOS ANGELES. THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALONG THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM ALTATA TO BAHIA KINO HAS BEEN CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM SAN JOSE DE LAS PALOMAS TO CABO SAN QUINTIN. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM BAHIA DE LOS ANGELES TO SAN FELIPE AND ALONG THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM BAHIA KINO TO PUERTO LIBERTAD. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM PUNTA ABREOJOS TO SANTA ROSALIA A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM NORTH OF PUNTA ABREOJOS TO PUNTA EUGENIA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF SANTA ROSALIA TO BAHIA DE LOS ANGELES * THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF PUNTA EUGENIA TO SAN JOSE DE LAS PALOMAS * MAINLAND MEXICO FROM ALTATA TO BAHIA KINO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA NORTH OF SAN JOSE DE LAS PALOMAS TO CABO SAN QUINTIN * THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF BAHIA DE LOS ANGELES TO SAN FELIPE * MAINLAND MEXICO FROM NORTH OF BAHIA KINO TO PUERTO LIBERTAD INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND NORTHWESTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ODILE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ODILE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.4 WEST. ODILE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/H...AND A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH DECREASING FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ODILE WILL MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH TUESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ODILE IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. STEADY WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ODILE IS A LARGE HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES...295 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 942 MB...27.82 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA IN ADVANCE OF THE HURRICANE CONDITIONS...AND OVER THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA IN MAINLAND MEXICO THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES. RAINFALL...ODILE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF AROUND 18 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH FRIDAY. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG COASTAL PORTIONS OF SINALOA AND SONORA. SURF...SWELLS FROM ODILE WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND ARE AFFECTING SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...500 AM PDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BROWN