000 WTPZ35 KNHC 150259 TCPEP5 BULLETIN HURRICANE ODILE ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152014 800 PM PDT SUN SEP 14 2014 ...CENTER OF DANGEROUS HURRICANE ODILE JUST A FEW HOURS FROM CABO SAN LUCAS... ...ALL PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA SHOULD HAVE BEEN COMPLETED... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.6N 109.6W ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM SE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...930 MB...27.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES. THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE HURRICANE WARNING NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR NORTHWARD TO LORETO. THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM NORTH OF LORETO TO BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA...AND FOR THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM NORTH OF PUNTA ABREOJOS TO PUNTA EUGENIA. THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM NORTH OF PUNTA EUGENIA TO SAN JOSE DE LAS PALOMAS...AND FOR MAINLAND MEXICO FROM ALTATA TO BAHIA KINO. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM PUNTA ABREOJOS TO LORETO A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM NORTH OF PUNTA ABREOJOS TO PUNTA EUGENIA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM NORTH OF LORETO TO BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA * THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM NORTH OF PUNTA ABREOJOS TO PUNTA EUGENIA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF PUNTA EUGENIA TO SAN JOSE DE LAS PALOMAS * MAINLAND MEXICO FROM ALTATA TO BAHIA KINO INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ODILE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ODILE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.6 WEST. ODILE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/H...AND A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH DECREASING FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ODILE WILL MOVE OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA IN A FEW HOURS...AND MOVE NEAR OR OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR THROUGH TUESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 125 MPH...205 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ODILE IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED UNTIL THE CENTER REACHES LAND IN A FEW HOURS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS LIKELY THEREAFTER THROUGH TUESDAY. ODILE IS A LARGE HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES...295 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 930 MB...27.47 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE BEGINNING IN THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PART OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR...AND WILL BE SPREADING NORTHWARD IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA TONIGHT AND MONDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR IN ADVANCE OF THE HURRICANE CONDITIONS...AND OVER THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES. SURF...SWELLS FROM ODILE WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND ARE AFFECTING SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. RAINFALL...ODILE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF AROUND 18 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH FRIDAY. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...1100 PM PDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER PASCH