000 WTPZ35 KNHC 142330 TCPEP5 BULLETIN HURRICANE ODILE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 19A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152014 500 PM PDT SUN SEP 14 2014 ...DANGEROUS HURRICANE ODILE EXPECTED TO MOVE NEAR OR OVER SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA TONIGHT AND MONDAY... ...ALL PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION... SUMMARY OF 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.9N 109.0W ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM SE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...925 MB...27.31 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM PUNTA ABREOJOS TO SAN EVARISTO A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM NORTH OF PUNTA ABREOJOS TO PUNTA EUGENIA. * THE EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM NORTH OF LA PAZ TO LORETO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES * THE EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM NORTH OF LA PAZ TO SANTA ROSALIA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM NORTH OF SANTA ROSALIA TO BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY MONDAY MORNING. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ODILE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE ODILE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.0 WEST. ODILE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF ODILE WILL PASS NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR TONIGHT AND MONDAY AND NEAR OR OVER THE REMAINDER OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR ON TUESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 125 MPH...205 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ODILE IS A STRONG CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS STILL POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST TO BEGIN ON MONDAY AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY. ODILE IS A LARGE HURRICANE. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 925 MB...27.31 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BEGINNING TONIGHT...AND ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA LATE MONDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR IN ADVANCE OF THE HURRICANE CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY STILL OCCURRING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO IN THE WARNING AREA BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT. STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES. SURF...SWELLS FROM ODILE WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND ARE BEGINNING TO AFFECT SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. RAINFALL...ODILE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF AROUND 15 INCHES IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR...ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL BANDS WILL ALSO MOVE THROUGH THE MEXICAN STATES OF COLIMA...WESTERN JALISCO...AND WESTERN MICHOACAN. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER PASCH/KIMBERLAIN