000 WTPZ35 KNHC 140241 TCPEP5 BULLETIN HURRICANE ODILE ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152014 800 PM PDT SAT SEP 13 2014 ...ODILE NOW MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AND RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING... ...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.9N 106.5W ABOUT 165 MI...260 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 410 MI...660 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB...28.41 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM CABO SAN LAZARO SOUTHWARD... AND FOR THE EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM LA PAZ SOUTHWARD...INCLUDING CABO SAN LUCAS. THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM NORTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO TO PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO...AND FOR THE EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM NORTH OF LA PAZ TO LORETO. THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES... AND FOR THE EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM NORTH OF LA PAZ TO LORETO. THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM NORTH OF PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO TO PUNTA ABREOJOS...AND FOR THE EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM NORTH OF LORETO TO MULEGE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM CABO SAN LAZARO TO LA PAZ A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM NORTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO TO PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO * THE EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM NORTH OF LA PAZ TO LORETO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES * THE EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM NORTH OF LA PAZ TO LORETO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM NORTH OF PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO TO PUNTA ABREOJOS * THE EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM NORTH OF LORETO TO MULEGE A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ODILE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ODILE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.5 WEST. ODILE IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H. A GENERAL MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH AN ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF ODILE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...AND THEN PASS NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ODILE IS RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING AND IT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. IT IS EXPECTED TO BE A MAJOR HURRICANE WHEN IT PASSES NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. ODILE CONTINUES TO BE A LARGE HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES...295 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 962 MB...28.41 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BEGINNING AS EARLY AS SUNDAY NIGHT...AND ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA LATE MONDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR IN ADVANCE OF THE HURRICANE CONDITIONS BEGINNING SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY OCCURRING ALONG THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO IN THE WARNING AREA. SURF...SWELLS FROM ODILE WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA ON SUNDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. RAINFALL...ODILE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF AROUND 15 INCHES IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN ACROSS THE MEXICAN STATES OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR...COLIMA...JALISCO...AND WESTERN MICHOACAN. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...1100 PM PDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN