000
WTPZ35 KNHC 080835
TCPEP5
 
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERICK ADVISORY NUMBER  16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052013
200 AM PDT MON JUL 08 2013
 
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BEGIN OVER THE SOUTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENNISULA LATER THIS MORNING...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.3N 109.5W
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERICK WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.5 WEST. ERICK IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H.  A WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ERICK
SHOULD PASS NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA LATER THIS MORNING.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...85
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
 
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
 
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN PORTIONS
OF THE WARNING AREA IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR LATER THIS MORNING.
 
RAINFALL...ERICK IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
1 TO 3 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.
 
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY ERICK ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.  THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...500 AM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/PASCH