000
WTPZ35 KNHC 122037
TCPEP5
 
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOVA ADVISORY NUMBER  28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102011
200 PM PDT WED OCT 12 2011
 
...JOVA WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION AND COASTAL WARNINGS ARE
DISCONTINUED...HOWEVER HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.4N 104.6W
ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM ESE OF TEPIC MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
NONE.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOVA
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.6 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H.  A
NORTHWARD DRIFT IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS UNTIL THE
DEPRESSION DISSIPATES.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF JOVA
WILL REMAIN INLAND OVER WESTERN MEXICO.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 35 MPH...
55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS....ESPECIALLY OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. 
ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST...AND JOVA IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE IN MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN NEAR THE CENTER OF JOVA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
 
STORM SURGE...STORM SURGE FLOODING ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD
SUBSIDE TODAY.
 
RAINFALL...JOVA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 6 TO 12 INCHES OVER THE STATES OF MICHOACAN...COLIMA...JALISCO...
AND NAYARIT...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES.
THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES OVER STEEP TERRAIN.
 
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY JOVA ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE COAST
OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-
THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.  THESE SWELLS SHOULD
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN