000 WTPZ35 KNHC 120835 TCPEP5 BULLETIN HURRICANE JOVA ADVISORY NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102011 200 AM PDT WED OCT 12 2011 ...JOVA MOVING INLAND OVER MEXICO...HEAVY RAINFALL REMAINS A MAJOR THREAT... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.9N 105.1W ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM NW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 50 MI...85 KM SE OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM LAZARO CARDENAS NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF PUNTA SAN TELMO. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUNTA SAN TELMO NORTHWARD TO CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF CABO CORRIENTES TO EL ROBLITO MEXICO FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOVA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.1 WEST. JOVA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H...AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TODAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF JOVA WILL CONTINUE MOVING INLAND OVER WESTERN MEXICO TODAY AND TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. JOVA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR- SIMPSON SCALE. STEADY WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS JOVA CONTINUES MOVING INLAND. JOVA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 981 MB...28.97 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ONGOING OVER A PORTION OF THE COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...AND WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INLAND IN A SMALL AREA NEAR THE CENTER OF JOVA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD OVER PORTIONS OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA TODAY. STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MADE LANDFALL. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES. RAINFALL...JOVA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES OVER THE STATES OF MICHOACAN...COLIMA...JALISCO... AND NAYARIT...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER STEEP TERRAIN. SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY JOVA ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE- THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...500 AM PDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN