000 WTPZ35 KNHC 111736 TCPEP5 BULLETIN HURRICANE JOVA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 23A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102011 1100 AM PDT TUE OCT 11 2011 ...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS THAT JOVA HAS WEAKENED... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.9N 105.5W ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.76 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUNTA SAN TELMO NORTHWARD TO CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LAZARO CARDENAS NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF PUNTA SAN TELMO MEXICO * NORTH OF CABO CORRIENTES TO EL ROBLITO MEXICO FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOVA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.5 WEST. JOVA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H. A GENERAL MOTION TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS FORECAST TONIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE WILL APPROACH THE COAST OF MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON...AND CROSS THE COAST THIS EVENING OR EARLY TONIGHT. REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 100 MPH... 160 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. JOVA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL...WITH WEAKENING EXPECTED AFTER THE CENTER CROSSES THE COAST. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 974 MB...28.76 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE COAST WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON. STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES. RAINFALL...JOVA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES OVER THE STATES OF MICHOACAN...COLIMA...JALISCO... AND NAYARIT...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY JOVA ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN