000 WTPZ35 KNHC 111443 TCPEP5 BULLETIN HURRICANE JOVA ADVISORY NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102011 800 AM PDT TUE OCT 11 2011 ...CENTER OF JOVA CONTINUING TO SLOWLY APPROACH THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.8N 105.6W ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...963 MB...28.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUNTA SAN TELMO NORTHWARD TO CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LAZARO CARDENAS NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF PUNTA SAN TELMO MEXICO * NORTH OF CABO CORRIENTES TO EL ROBLITO MEXICO FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOVA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.6 WEST. JOVA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS FORECAST TONIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE WILL APPROACH THE COAST OF MEXICO TODAY...AND CROSS THE COAST THIS EVENING OR EARLY TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. JOVA IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL...WITH WEAKENING EXPECTED AFTER THE CENTER CROSSES THE COAST. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY EN ROUTE TO INVESTIGATE JOVA. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 963 MB...28.44 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE COAST WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON. STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES. RAINFALL...JOVA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES OVER THE STATES OF MICHOACAN...COLIMA...JALISCO... AND NAYARIT...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY JOVA ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...1100 AM PDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN