000 WTPZ35 KNHC 110839 TCPEP5 BULLETIN HURRICANE JOVA ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102011 200 AM PDT TUE OCT 11 2011 ...JOVA TAKING AIM ON SOUTHWEST MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.5N 105.9W ABOUT 150 MI...235 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 200 MI...325 KM S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...963 MB...28.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUNTA SAN TELMO NORTHWARD TO CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LAZARO CARDENAS NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF PUNTA SAN TELMO MEXICO * NORTH OF CABO CORRIENTES TO EL ROBLITO MEXICO FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOVA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.9 WEST. JOVA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TODAY. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS FORECAST TONIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE WILL BE NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. JOVA IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH COULD OCCUR TODAY...AND JOVA IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 963 MB...28.44 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WARNING AREA THIS MORNING. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE COAST WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON. STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES. RAINFALL...JOVA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES OVER THE STATES OF MICHOACAN...COLIMA...JALISCO... AND NAYARIT...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY JOVA ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...500 AM PDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BROWN