000 WTPZ35 KNHC 101754 TCPEP5 BULLETIN HURRICANE JOVA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 19A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102011 1100 AM PDT MON OCT 10 2011 ...JOVA TURNS TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.5N 106.4W ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB...28.26 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUNTA SAN TELMO NORTHWARD TO CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LAZARO CARDENAS NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF PUNTA SAN TELMO MEXICO FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE JOVA WAS LOCATED A UNITED STATES AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.4 WEST. JOVA IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE WILL BE NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. REPORTS FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 125 MPH...205 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. JOVA IS CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND JOVA COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE LATER TODAY OR EARLY TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE UNTIL LANDFALL...JOVA IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE A MAJOR HURRICANE WHEN IT REACHES THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM. RECENT REPORTS FROM THE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 957 MB...28.26 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREAS BY TUESDAY MORNING. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE COAST WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES. RAINFALL...JOVA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER THE STATES OF MICHOACA...COLIMA...AND JALISCO...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY JOVA WILL BEGIN AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO TODAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER STEWART