000 WTPZ35 KNHC 100538 TCPEP5 BULLETIN HURRICANE JOVA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 17A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102011 1100 PM PDT SUN OCT 09 2011 ...JOVA EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM PDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.4N 107.2W ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.79 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUNTA SAN TELMO NORTHWARD TO CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LAZARO CARDENAS NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF PUNTA SAN TELMO MEXICO A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 PM PDT...0600 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE JOVA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.2 WEST. JOVA IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H...AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED BY MONDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE WILL BE NEARING THE COAST OF MEXICO BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. JOVA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND JOVA COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY TUESDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 975 MB...28.79 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER THE COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREAS BY TUESDAY MORNING. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY JOVA SHOULD BEGIN AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF SOUTHWEST MEXICO ON MONDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BROWN