000 WTPZ35 KNHC 092042 TCPEP5 BULLETIN HURRICANE JOVA ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102011 200 PM PDT SUN OCT 09 2011 ...JOVA GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED...HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.2N 107.9W ABOUT 305 MI...490 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO FROM PUNTA SAN TELMO NORTHWARD TO CABO CORRIENTES...AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM LAZARO CARDENAS NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF PUNTA SAN TELMO. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUNTA SAN TELMO NORTHWARD TO CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LAZARO CARDENAS NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF PUNTA SAN TELMO MEXICO A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOVA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.9 WEST. JOVA IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TODAY. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. JOVA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND JOVA COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM. RECENT REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 976 MB...28.82 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...500 PM PDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER STEWART