000
WTPZ34 KNHC 201745
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Priscilla Intermediate Advisory Number 2A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP192019
100 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2019

...PRISCILLA JUST OFFSHORE THE COAST OF MEXICO...
...HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.6N 104.0W
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM SSW OF TECOMAN MEXICO
ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM SE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Priscilla was
located near latitude 18.6 North, longitude 104.0 West. Priscilla is
moving toward the north near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue through tonight.  On the forecast track, the
center of Priscilla will make landfall this afternoon and move
inland this evening.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is expected before Priscilla moves
inland. Rapid weakening and dissipation are expected after landfall.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Tropical Storm Priscilla is expected to produce rainfall
accumulations of 5 to 10 inches, with local amounts to 15 inches,
across portions of Nayarit, Jalisco, Colima, and Michoacan in
southwestern Mexico through Tuesday night. This rainfall could
produce flash flooding and mudslides within steep terrain.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area later today.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart