000
WTPZ34 KNHC 201439
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Priscilla Advisory Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP192019
1000 AM CDT Sun Oct 20 2019

...PRISCILLA MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD MEXICO...
...HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.1N 104.0W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Priscilla
was located near latitude 18.1 North, longitude 104.0 West.
Priscilla is moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this
motion is expected to continue through tonight.  On the forecast
track, the center of Priscilla will approach the southwestern coast
of Mexico within the warning area later today, and move inland by
tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is expected before Priscilla moves inland.
Rapid weakening and dissipation are expected after landfall.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Tropical Storm Priscilla is expected to produce rainfall
accumulations of 5 to 10 inches, with local amounts to 15 inches,
across portions of Nayarit, Jalisco, Colima, and Michoacan in
southwestern Mexico through Tuesday night. This rainfall could
produce flash flooding and mudslides within steep terrain.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area later today.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart