000
WTPZ34 KNHC 201145
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Priscilla Intermediate Advisory Number 1A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP192019
700 AM CDT Sun Oct 20 2019

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM PRISCILLA...
...HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.8N 104.0W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Priscilla was
located near latitude 17.8 North, longitude 104.0 West. Priscilla is
is moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue through tonight.  On the forecast track, the
center of Priscilla will approach the southwestern coast of Mexico
within the warning area later today, and move inland by tonight.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Some additional slight strengthening is possible
before Priscilla moves inland.  Rapid weakening and dissipation is
expected after landfall.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Tropical Storm Priscilla is expected to produce rainfall
accumulations of 5 to 10 inches, with local amounts to 15 inches,
across portions of Nayarit, Jalisco, Colima, and Michoacan in
southwestern Mexico through Tuesday night.  This rainfall could
produce flash flooding and mudslides within steep terrain.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected within a portion of
the warning area later today.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart