000 WTPZ34 KNHC 210841 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Hurricane Willa Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP242018 300 AM MDT Sun Oct 21 2018 ...WILLA RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES INTO A HURRICANE SOUTHWEST OF MEXICO... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY MONDAY MORNING... SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.2N 106.5W ABOUT 240 MI...390 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests along the coasts of west-central and southwestern mainland Mexico should monitor the progress of Willa. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Willa was located near latitude 16.2 North, longitude 106.5 West. Willa is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through early Sunday. A turn toward the north-northwest and north is expected by late Sunday and Monday. Willa is expected to accelerate toward the northeast and approach the coast of west-central mainland Mexico by late Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and Willa is expected to become a major hurricane by Monday morning. Willa is a small tropical cyclone. Hurricane-force winds only extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds only extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 984 mb (29.06 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Willa should begin to affect portions of the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico by Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart