000
WTPZ34 KNHC 210231
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Willa Advisory Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP242018
900 PM MDT Sat Oct 20 2018

...WILLA ALMOST A HURRICANE...
...EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AND BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE IN A
DAY OR SO...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.7N 106.1W
ABOUT 255 MI...415 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests along the coast of west-central mainland Mexico should
monitor the progress of Willa.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Willa was
located near latitude 15.7 North, longitude 106.1 West. Willa is
moving toward the northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue through early Sunday.  A turn toward
the north-northwest and north is expected by late Sunday and Monday.
Willa is expected to accelerate toward the northeast and approach
the coast of west-central mainland Mexico by late Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Rapid strengthening is forecast during the next
couple of days, and Willa is expected to become a hurricane
overnight and a major hurricane by Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF:  Swells generated by Willa should begin to affect portions of
the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico by Monday.  These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi