000
WTPZ34 KNHC 171133
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Carlotta Intermediate Advisory Number 11A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP042018
700 AM CDT Sun Jun 17 2018

...CARLOTTA WEAKENING NEAR THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.1N 101.0W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM SE OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Tecpan De Galeana to Lazaro Cardenas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Carlotta was
estimated to be near latitude 17.1 North, longitude 101.0 West.
Carlotta is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and
this general motion is expected to continue today and tonight.  On
the forecast track, the small core of Carlotta should move inland
within the warning area later today or early Monday.  However, any
deviation to the right of the track could result in an earlier
landfall.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Additional weakening is anticipated, and
the small cyclone could dissipate due to the interaction with
the high terrain of Mexico today or Monday.

Carlotta is a very small cyclone, and tropical-storm-force winds
extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) mainly to the east and south
of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Carlotta is forecast to produce 3 to 6 inches of rainfall
along the Guerrero, southwestern Oaxaca, and southern Michoacan
coasts including the city of Acapulco, with isolated higher amounts
of 10 inches possible.  These rains are likely to produce life-
threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in areas of
higher terrain.  Elsewhere across the states of Guerrero and Oaxaca,
rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches with isolated amounts of 4 inches
are forecast.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are likely to spread westward along
the warning area today.

SURF:  Swells generated by Carlotta are affecting portions of
the coast of southern Mexico.  These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch