000 WTPZ34 KNHC 170216 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Carlotta Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042018 1000 PM CDT Sat Jun 16 2018 ...CARLOTTA VERY NEAR THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO WITH 65-MPH WINDS... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.6N 99.9W ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Government of Mexico has extended the Tropical Storm Warning westward from Acapulco to Tecpan De Galeana and canceled the Tropical Storm Warning east of Punta Maldonado. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Punta Maldonado to Tecpan De Galeana A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Carlotta was located near latitude 16.6 North, longitude 99.9 West. Carlotta is moving toward the northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue overnight and Sunday. On the forecast track, Carlotta is expected to move inland within the warning area overnight or early Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. No significant change in strength is expected before landfall. The small cyclone is forecast to quickly dissipate over the high terrain of Mexico by Sunday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Carlotta is forecast to produce 3 to 6 inches of rainfall along the Guerrero and southwestern Oaxaca coasts, including the city of Acapulco, with isolated higher amounts of 10 inches possible. These rains are likely to produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in areas of higher terrain. Elsewhere across the states of Guerrero and Oaxaca, rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches with isolated amounts of 4 inches are forecast. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are likely occurring in the warning area, and these conditions are expected to continue into Sunday. SURF: Swells generated by Carlotta are affecting portions of the coast of southern Mexico. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi