000 WTPZ34 KNHC 161433 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Carlotta Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042018 1000 AM CDT Sat Jun 16 2018 ...CARLOTTA STILL MOVING LITTLE OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO... ...THREAT OF FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES CONTINUES... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.9N 99.3W ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM SSE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM WSW OF PUNTA MALDONADO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Acapulco to Lagunas de Chacahua A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Carlotta was located near latitude 15.9 North, longitude 99.3 West. Carlotta is nearly stationary, and little motion is expected today. A slow north-northwestward or northward motion is expected to begin tonight. On the forecast track, Carlotta is expected to move inland within the warning area by late tonight or early Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. No significant change in intensity is expected before landfall. The small cyclone is forecast to quickly dissipate over the high terrain of Mexico on Sunday after moving inland. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Carlotta is forecast to produce 3 to 6 inches of rainfall along the Guerrero and southwestern Oaxaca coasts, including the city of Acapulco, with isolated higher amounts of 10 inches possible. These rains are likely to produce life-threatening flash floods and mud slides, especially in areas of higher terrain. Elsewhere across the states of Guerrero and Oaxaca, rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches with isolated amounts of 4 inches are forecast. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin within the warning area later today and continue through tomorrow. SURF: Swells generated by Carlotta are affecting portions of the coast of southern Mexico. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch