000
WTPZ34 KNHC 152332
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Carlotta Intermediate Advisory Number 5A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP042018
700 PM CDT Fri Jun 15 2018

...CARLOTTA PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.1N 99.3W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM WSW OF PUNTA MALDONADO MEXICO
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM SE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Acapulco to Lagunas de Chacahua

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Carlotta was
located near latitude 16.1 North, longitude 99.3 West.  Carlotta is
moving toward the northeast near 3 mph (6 km/h).  On the forecast
track, the center of Carlotta is expected to make landfall early on
Saturday within the warning area.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Little change in wind speed is expected before landfall.
The small cyclone is forecast to quickly dissipate over the high
terrain of Mexico by Saturday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
northeast of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Carlotta is forecast to produce 3 to 6 inches of rainfall
along the Guerrero and Oaxaca coasts, including the city of
Acapulco, with isolated higher amounts of 10 inches possible.  These
rains are likely to produce life-threatening flash floods and
mudslides, especially in areas of higher terrain.  Farther inland
across the states of Guerrero and Oaxaca, rainfall amounts of 1 to 2
inches with isolated amounts of 4 inches are forecast.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area tonight.

SURF:  Swells generated by Carlotta are affecting portions of
the coast of southern Mexico.  These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi