000 WTPZ34 KNHC 152032 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Carlotta Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042018 400 PM CDT Fri Jun 15 2018 ...CARLOTTA MOVING CLOSER TO MEXICO, DROPPING TORRENTIAL RAINS... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.1N 99.3W ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM WSW OF PUNTA MALDONADO MEXICO ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM SE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for the coast of Mexico from Tecpan de Galeana to west of Acapulco. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Acapulco to Lagunas de Chacahua A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Carlotta was located near latitude 16.1 North, longitude 99.3 West. Carlotta is moving toward the northeast near 3 mph (6 km/h). On the forecast track, the center of Carlotta is expected to make landfall early on Saturday within the warning area and dissipate that evening. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. No significant change in wind speed is likely before landfall early Saturday. The small cyclone is forecast to quickly dissipate late Saturday over the high terrain of Mexico. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Carlotta is forecast to produce 3 to 6 inches of rainfall along the Guerrero and Oaxaca coasts, including the city of Acapulco, with isolated higher amounts of 10 inches possible. These rains are likely to produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in areas of higher terrain. Farther inland across the states of Guerrero and Oaxaca, rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches with isolated amounts of 4 inches are forecast. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area tonight. SURF: Swells generated by Carlotta are affecting portions of the coast of southern Mexico. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Blake