000
WTPZ34 KNHC 151748
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Carlotta Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP042018
100 PM CDT Fri Jun 15 2018

...CARLOTTA FORMS JUST SOUTH OF MEXICO...
...CONTINUED HEAVY RAIN THE MAIN THREAT...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 99.4W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM SSE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM WSW OF PUNTA MALDONADO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Tecpan de Galeana to Lagunas de Chacahua

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the watch area, in this case within 12-24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Carlotta was
located by satellite and Acapulco radar near latitude 16.0 North,
longitude 99.4 West.  Carlotta is moving toward the northeast near 5
mph (7 km/h).  On the forecast track, the center of Carlotta is
expected to make landfall on Saturday within the warning area and
move farther inland on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with
higher gusts.  Some further intensification is possible today.
Carlotta is forecast to quickly weaken after landfall on Saturday,
and then dissipate on Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Carlotta is forecast to produce 3 to 6 inches of rainfall
along the Guerrero and Oaxaca coasts, including the city of
Acapulco, with isolated higher amounts of 10 inches possible.  These
rains are likely to produce life-threatening flash floods and
mudslides, especially in areas of higher terrain.  Farther inland
across the states of Guerrero and Oaxaca, rainfall amounts of 1 to 2
inches with isolated amounts of 4 inches are forecast.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area starting early Saturday.

SURF:  Swells generated by Carlotta are affecting portions of
the coast of southern Mexico.  These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake