000 WTPZ34 KNHC 231134 TCPEP4 BULLETIN HURRICANE HILARY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092011 500 AM PDT FRI SEP 23 2011 ...CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE HILARY MOVING AWAY FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.9N 102.1W ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM SSW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...16 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...944 MB...27.88 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * WEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO WESTWARD TO PUNTA SAN TELMO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * WEST OF PUNTA SAN TELMO TO MANZANILLO THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AND WARNING COULD BE DISCONTINUED LATER THIS MORNING. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE HILARY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.1 WEST. HILARY IS MOVING WESTWARD NEAR 10 MPH...16 KM/H. A WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF HILARY SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING FARTHER OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 145 MPH...235 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. HILARY IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE LIKELY TODAY...FOLLOWED BY SLOW WEAKENING BY SATURDAY. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 944 MB...27.88 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...PRIMARILY IN GUSTS...ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. THESE WINDS COULD SPREAD WESTWARD ALONG THE COAST DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. RAINFALL...HILARY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN GUERRERO AND SOUTHERN MICHOACAN IN SOUTHERN MEXICO WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES POSSIBLE. SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY HILARY ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY CAUSING LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA/STEWART