000 WTPZ34 KNHC 221731 TCPEP4 BULLETIN HURRICANE HILARY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092011 1100 AM PDT THU SEP 22 2011 ...HILARY CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...OUTER RAIN BANDS AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.4N 99.3W ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM SSE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LAGUNAS DE CHACAHUA MEXICO WESTWARD TO PUNTA SAN TELMO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * WEST OF PUNTA SAN TELMO TO MANZANILLO FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HILARY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 99.3 WEST. HILARY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK THE CORE OF HILARY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE PARALLEL TO THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO...BUT ANY DEVIATION TO THE NORTH OF THE TRACK COULD BRING STRONGER WINDS TO THE COAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. HILARY IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND HILARY COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY FRIDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 75 MILES...120 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 984 MB...29.06 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD WESTWARD ALONG THE COAST DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. RAINFALL...HILARY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN GUERRERO AND SOUTHWESTERN OAXACA IN SOUTHERN MEXICO WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES POSSIBLE. SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY HILARY ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/PASCH