000 WTPZ34 KNHC 221433 TCPEP4 BULLETIN HURRICANE HILARY ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092011 800 AM PDT THU SEP 22 2011 ...HILARY IS NOW A HURRICANE...ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING EXPECTED... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.1N 98.9W ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM SSE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LAGUNAS DE CHACAHUA MEXICO WESTWARD TO PUNTA SAN TELMO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * WEST OF PUNTA SAN TELMO TO MANZANILLO FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HILARY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 98.9 WEST. HILARY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK THE CORE OF HILARY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE PARALLEL TO THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO...BUT ANY DEVIATION TO THE NORTH OF THE TRACK COULD BRING STRONGER WINDS TO THE COAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. HILARY IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND HILARY COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY FRIDAY NIGHT. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 75 MILES...120 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 989 MB...29.21 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO REACH THE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD WESTWARD ALONG THE COAST DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. RAINFALL...HILARY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN GUERRERO AND SOUTHWESTERN OAXACA IN SOUTHERN MEXICO WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES POSSIBLE. SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY HILARY ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...1100 AM PDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/PASCH