000 WTPZ34 KNHC 221133 TCPEP4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM HILARY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092011 500 AM PDT THU SEP 22 2011 ...HILARY NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.0N 98.6W ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM S OF PUNTO MALDONADO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LAGUNAS DE CHACAHUA MEXICO WESTWARD TO PUNTA SAN TELMO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * WEST OF PUNTA SAN TELMO TO MANZANILLO FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HILARY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 98.6 WEST. HILARY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK THE CORE OF HILARY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE PARALLEL TO THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO...BUT ANY DEVIATION TO THE NORTH OF THE TRACK COULD BRING STRONGER WINDS TO THE COAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HILARY IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE TODAY AND COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY SATURDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 991 MB...29.26 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE WARNING AREA LATER THIS MORNING...AND THEN SPREAD WESTWARD ALONG THE COAST DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. RAINFALL...HILARY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN GUERRERO AND SOUTHWESTERN OAXACA IN SOUTHERN MEXICO WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES POSSIBLE. SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY HILARY ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/PASCH