000
WTPZ34 KNHC 222056
TCPEP4
 
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DORA ADVISORY NUMBER  18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042011
200 PM PDT FRI JUL 22 2011
 
...DORA STILL A HURRICANE...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.8N 109.9W
ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM S OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MEXICO FROM AGUA BLANCA TO BUENAVISTA INCLUDING CABO SAN LUCAS
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12
TO 24 HOURS.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA ...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DORA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 19.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.9 WEST.  DORA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  ON THE
FORECAST TRACK DORA SHOULD MOVE NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE COAST OF
WESTERN BAJA CALIFORNIA FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 80 MPH...130
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  DORA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE.  WEAKENING IS FORECAST FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  DORA COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BY
TONIGHT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY EARLY SUNDAY.
 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105
MILES...165 KM.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE FROM A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
WARNING AREA BY TONIGHT.
 
SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY DORA WILL AFFECT THE COAST OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO AND BAJA CALIFORNIA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.  THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF
AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...500 PM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN