000 WTPZ34 KNHC 221745 TCPEP4 BULLETIN HURRICANE DORA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 17A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042011 1100 AM PDT FRI JUL 22 2011 ...DORA MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD...NOAA AIRCRAFT IS IN EN ROUTE... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.5N 109.5W ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM S OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MEXICO FROM AGUA BLANCA TO BUENAVISTA INCLUDING CABO SAN LUCAS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DORA WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.5 WEST. DORA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK DORA SHOULD MOVE NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE COAST OF WESTERN BAJA CALIFORNIA FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DORA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. WEAKENING IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. DORA COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BY TONIGHT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY EARLY SUNDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 981 MB...28.97 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA BY TONIGHT. SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY DORA WILL AFFECT THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO AND BAJA CALIFORNIA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/BEVEN