000 WTPZ34 KNHC 220247 TCPEP4 BULLETIN HURRICANE DORA ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042011 800 PM PDT THU JUL 21 2011 ...DORA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN BUT STILL A DANGEROUS HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.3N 108.1W ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM SW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO ABOUT 340 MI...545 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.05 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM AGUA BLANCA TO BUENAVISTA INCLUDING CABO SAN LUCAS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MEXICO FROM AGUA BLANCA TO BUENAVISTA INCLUDING CABO SAN LUCAS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DORA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.1 WEST. DORA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF DORA WOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...BUT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY REACH PORTIONS OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA BY FRIDAY NIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 125 MPH...205 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DORA IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. CONTINUED WEAKENING IS FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH A MORE RAPID DECREASE IN WINDS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES...240 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 950 MB...28.05 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA BY FRIDAY NIGHT. SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY DORA WILL AFFECT THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SWELLS WILL BEGIN AFFECTING THE COAST OF THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF BAJA CALIFORNIA LATER TONIGHT. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...1100 PM PDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER PASCH