000 WTPZ34 KNHC 211438 TCPEP4 BULLETIN HURRICANE DORA ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042011 800 AM PDT THU JUL 21 2011 ...DORA NEARLY A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE...EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.1N 106.9W ABOUT 240 MI...390 KM SSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO ABOUT 445 MI...715 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...929 MB...27.43 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE DORA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.9 WEST. DORA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THE FORECAST TRACK DORA IS EXPECTED TO STAY WELL OFFSHORE OF MEXICO. SATELLITE PICTURES INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 155 MPH...250 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DORA IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN BY TONIGHT...AND A RAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES...240 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 929 MB...27.43 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY DORA WILL AFFECT THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SWELLS WILL BEGIN AFFECTING THE COAST OF THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF BAJA CALIFORNIA LATER TODAY. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BLAKE