000 WTPZ33 KNHC 092351 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Julia Intermediate Advisory Number 14A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182022 700 PM CDT Sun Oct 09 2022 ...CENTER OF JULIA EMERGES OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC... ...HEAVY RAINFALL WITH A RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES TO CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO THROUGH TUESDAY... SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.5N 87.6W ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM WNW OF MANAGUA NICARAGUA ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM SE OF SAN SALVADOR EL SALVADOR MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Pacific coast of Nicaragua * Pacific coast of Honduras * Coast of El Salvador A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Pacific coast of Guatemala A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 to 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Julia was located near latitude 12.5 North, longitude 87.6 West. Julia is moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h). A westward or west-northwestward motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected tonight and on Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Julia will move close to and parallel to the Pacific coasts of Honduras, El Salvador, and Guatemala tonight and on Monday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast, but Julia is expected to remain a tropical storm near the Pacific coast of Central America through early Monday. Julia is expected to dissipate by Monday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Julia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP3 and WMO header WTPZ43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP3.shtml. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are likely occuring along the Pacific coast of Nicaragua and should spread to the Pacific coasts of Honduras and El Salvador this evening and tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible along the Pacific coast of Guatemala on Monday. RAINFALL: Julia is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through Tuesday: Nicaragua and El Salvador...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches. Honduras, Belize, northern Guatemala, and the Isthmus of Tehuantepec in Mexico...3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches. Southern Guatemala...4 to 8 inches, isolated 12 inches. Costa Rica...an additional 2 to 4 inches, isolated 12 inch storm total amounts. This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides across Central America today and Monday. Flash flooding is anticipated across the Isthmus of Tehuantepec in Mexico early this week. SURF: Swells generated by Julia continue to affect Providencia and San Andres Islands and the Caribbean coast of Central America, but should gradually subside through Monday night. Swells not caused by Julia are expected to affect the Pacific coast of Central America during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown