000 WTPZ33 KNHC 171153 TCPEP3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM CARLOS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 27A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032015 700 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2015 ...RAPIDLY WEAKENING CARLOS NEAR THE COAST OF WESTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.4N 105.1W ABOUT 10 MI...20 KM S OF PLAYA PERULA MEXICO ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM SSE OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Punta San Telmo to Cabo Corrientes, Mexico For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Carlos was located near latitude 19.4 North, longitude 105.1 West. Carlos is moving toward the north-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue until dissipation occurs on Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Carlos will cross the coast in the Tropical Storm Warning area today and move over the western coast of Mexico by this evening. Maximum sustained winds have rapidly decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional rapid weakening is expected as Carlos moves near or over the coast of western Mexico today. The cyclone is forecast to become a tropical depression by tonight and a remnant low by Thursday morning as it moves off of the coast of Mexico and into the southern Gulf of California. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area today. RAINFALL: Carlos is expected to produce additional rainfall accumulations of 1 to 3 inches across the the Mexican states of Michoacan, Colima, Jalisco, Nayarit through Friday. These rains may produce life-threatening flash floods and mud slides, especially in areas of higher terrain. SURF: Swells associated with Carlos will continue to affect the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next day or two. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart