000 WTPZ33 KNHC 160239 TCPEP3 BULLETIN HURRICANE CARLOTTA ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032012 800 PM PDT FRI JUN 15 2012 ...CARLOTTA MAKING LANDFALL NEAR PUERTO ESCONDIDO MEXICO WITH ESTIMATED 90-MPH WINDS... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.9N 97.2W ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM NW OF PUERTO ESCONDIDO MEXICO ABOUT 190 MI...310 KM ESE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED ALL WATCHES AND WARNINGS EAST OF SALINA CRUZ. THE HURRICANE WARNING FROM WEST OF PUNTA MALDONADO TO ACAPULCO HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH. THE HURRICANE WATCH WEST OF ACAPULCO HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM SALINA CRUZ TO PUNTA MALDONADO A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO WEST OF PUNTA MALDONADO TO ACAPULCO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO WEST OF PUNTA MALDONADO TO ACAPULCO A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE BEEN COMPLETED. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE CARLOTTA WAS NEAR LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 97.2 WEST. CARLOTTA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF CARLOTTA WILL BE MOVING INLAND OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER...A SMALL DEVIATION TO THE LEFT OF THE TRACK COULD KEEP THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE OVER WATER OR ALONG THE COAST. SINCE CARLOTTA IS INTERACTING WITH THE HIGH TERRAIN OF MEXICO...THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. CARLOTTA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM. A WEATHER STATION IN THE TOWN OF PLUMA HIDALGO RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 76 MPH...123 KM/H. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 978 MB...28.88 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE PROBABLY OCCURRING WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...AND THESE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE AND SPREAD WESTWARD OVERNIGHT AND ON SATURDAY. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA ON SATURDAY. STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW...MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES. RAINFALL...CARLOTTA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...75 TO 125 MM...THROUGH MONDAY OVER THE MEXICAN STATES OF CHIAPAS...GUERRERO...AND NORTHERN OAXACA...WITH 6 TO 10 INCHES...150 TO 250 MM...EXPECTED OVER SOUTHERN OAXACA. ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 12 TO 15 INCHES...300 TO 375 MM MM...ARE ANTICIPATED ALONG THE OAXACA COAST...WITH 6 TO 12 INCHES...150 TO 300 MM ALONG THE GUERRERO COAST. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...1100 PM PDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER AVILA