000 WTPZ33 KNHC 152350 TCPEP3 BULLETIN HURRICANE CARLOTTA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032012 500 PM PDT FRI JUN 15 2012 ...EYE OF CARLOTTA JUST OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO VERY NEAR PUERTO ANGEL... SUMMARY OF 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.5N 96.6W ABOUT 10 MI...20 KM SSW OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO ABOUT 225 MI...365 KM ESE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM SALINA CRUZ TO ACAPULCO A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO EAST OF SALINA CRUZ TO BARRA DE TONALA * THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO WEST OF ACAPULCO TO TECPAN DE GALEANA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO EAST OF SALINA CRUZ TO BARRA DE TONALA INTERESTS ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO WEST OF TECPAN DE GALEANA TO CABO CORRIENTES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF CARLOTTA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE BEEN COMPLETED. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE CARLOTTA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.6 WEST. CARLOTTA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF CARLOTTA SHOULD MOVE OVER OR ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO BETWEEN PUERTO ANGEL AND ACAPULCO TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. CARLOTTA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SINCE A LARGE PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION IS ALREADY OVER LAND...NO ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED TONIGHT. WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS THE CENTER OF CARLOTTA MOVES ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM. A MEXICAN NAVY AUTOMATIC WEATHER STATION IN HUATULCO RECENTLY REPORTED A GUST OF 54 MPH...86 KM/H. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 976 MB...28.82 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE PROBABLY ALREADY OCCURRING WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...AND THESE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE AND SPREAD WESTWARD TONIGHT. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW...MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES. RAINFALL...CARLOTTA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...75 TO 125 MM...THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT OVER THE MEXICAN STATES OF CHIAPAS...GUERRERO...AND NORTHERN OAXACA...WITH 6 TO 10 INCHES...150 TO 250 MM...EXPECTED OVER SOUTHERN OAXACA. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 TO 15 INCHES... 300 TO 375 MM MM...ARE ANTICIPATED ALONG THE OAXACA COAST...WITH 6 TO 10 INCHES...150 TO 250 MM ALONG THE GUERRERO COAST. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER AVILA