000 WTPZ33 KNHC 151748 TCPEP3 BULLETIN HURRICANE CARLOTTA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032012 1100 AM PDT FRI JUN 15 2012 ...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTS THAT CARLOTTA CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.4N 96.2W ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM SSE OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM SE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...135 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO EAST OF SALINA CRUZ TO BARRA DE TONALA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM SALINA CRUZ TO ACAPULCO A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO EAST OF SALINA CRUZ TO BARRA DE TONALA * THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO WEST OF ACAPULCO TO TECPAN DE GALEANA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO EAST OF SALINA CRUZ TO BARRA DE TONALA INTERESTS ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO WEST OF TECPAN DE GALEANA TO CABO CORRIENTES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF CARLOTTA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE CARLOTTA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.2 WEST. CARLOTTA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF CARLOTTA SHOULD MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 85 MPH... 135 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. CARLOTTA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. RAPID STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...AND CARLOTTA COULD BECOME A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE AS THE CENTER APPROACHES THE COAST OF MEXICO. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...145 KM. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 979 MB...28.91 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY TONIGHT...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WARNING AREAS. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA BY SATURDAY. STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES. RAINFALL...CARLOTTA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...75 TO 125 MM...OVER THE MEXICAN STATES OF CHIAPAS...GUERRERO...AND NORTHERN OAXACA...WITH 6 TO 10 INCHES...150 TO 250 MM...EXPECTED OVER SOUTHERN OAXACA. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 TO 15 INCHES...300 TO 375 MM MM...ARE ANTICIPATED ALONG THE OAXACA COAST...WITH 6 TO 8 INCHES...150 TO 200 MM ALONG THE GUERRERO COAST. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN