000 WTPZ32 KNHC 191451 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Hurricane Norma Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172023 900 AM MDT Thu Oct 19 2023 ...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS TO INVESTIGATE MAJOR HURRICANE NORMA LATER TODAY... ...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR THROUGH THE WEEKEND... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.4N 107.6W ABOUT 245 MI...390 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 410 MI...655 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...946 MB...27.94 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Baja California peninsula from Todos Santos to Los Barriles A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Interests elsewhere in Baja California Sur and along the west coast of mainland Mexico should monitor the progress of Norma. Additional watches or warnings could be required later today or tonight. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Norma was located near latitude 17.4 North, longitude 107.6 West. Norma is moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h). A northward to north-northwestward motion at a similar forward speed is expected for the next couple of days. A slower northward to northeastward motion is forecast over the weekend. On the forecast track, Norma is forecast to approach the southern portion of Baja California on Friday night and Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts. Norma is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Small intensity fluctuations are possible today, followed by gradual weakening beginning Friday and continuing into the weekend. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 946 mb (27.94 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Norma can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP2.shtml WIND: Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by early Saturday. RAINFALL: Norma is expected to produce rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches with local maxima of 15 inches through Sunday across the far southern portion of the Mexican state of Baja California Sur. These rains will likely produce flash and urban flooding, along with possible mudslides in areas of higher terrain. SURF: Swells generated by Norma are affecting portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico, and will spread northward along the coast of western Mexico and toward Baja California Sur during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1200 PM MDT. Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Reinhart