000 WTPZ32 KNHC 092052 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kay Advisory Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122022 200 PM PDT Fri Sep 09 2022 ...KAY BECOMING LESS ORGANIZED AND COULD DECAY TO A REMNANT LOW TONIGHT... ...HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE IN PARTS OF NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.0N 118.0W ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM SSW OF SAN DIEGO CALIFORNIA ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM WNW OF PUNTA BAJA MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for mainland Mexico and for the east coast of the Baja California peninsula. The Government of Mexico has also discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning on the west coast of the Baja California peninsula south of Cabo San Quintin. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cabo San Quintin northward along the west coast of the Baja California peninsula to the U.S./Mexico border A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests in southern California should monitor the progress of Kay and consult products from your local weather office. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kay was located near latitude 31.0 North, longitude 118.0 West. Kay is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn toward the west-northwest and a decrease in forward speed are expected later today, and a turn to the west is expected by late Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Kay will move parallel to the coast of the northwestern Baja California peninsula through today, and then begin to move further offshore tonight and Saturday. Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft and recent satellite wind data indicate that maximum sustained winds are now near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Kay is expected to degenerate into a remnant low sometime tonight. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) mainly to the east of the center. There are continued report of 50-70 mph (80-110 km/h) wind gusts in the mountains east and northeast of San Diego, with occasional gusts to hurricane force. The minimum central pressure estimated from the Hurricane Hunter data is 994 mb (29.36 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Kay can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP2.shtml. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring over portions of the Tropical Storm Warning area. Strong winds not directly associated with Kay's core wind field are occurring across portions of southern California and extreme southwestern Arizona. For information on this wind hazard, users should see High Wind Warnings and other products from their local NWS Weather Forecast Office. RAINFALL: Kay is expected to produce the following rainfall totals: Baja California: Additional rainfall of 2 to 4 inches with isolated maxima of 6 inches. Event total rainfall 6 to 10 inches, isolated maxima of 15 inches Western Sonora: Additional rainfall of 1 to 2 inches with isolated maxima of 4 inches. Event total rainfall 2 to 4 inches, isolated maxima of 8 inches Southernmost California: 2 to 4 inches with isolated maxima of 6 to 8 inches Sierra Nevada, Arizona, and Southern Nevada: 1 to 2 inches with isolated maxima of 3 inches These rainfall amounts could lead to flash flooding, with landslides possible across mountainous areas of Mexico. SURF: Swells generated by Kay will continue to affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next day or so. Large swells are expected to spread northward along the Baja California peninsula coast, into the Gulf of California, and to southern California during the next day or two. These swells will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 500 PM PDT. Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Beven