422 WTPZ32 KNHC 091452 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kay Advisory Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122022 800 AM PDT Fri Sep 09 2022 ...KAY MOVING NORTHWESTWARD NEAR THE COAST OF THE NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA... ...HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING ONGOING IN MEXICO AND SPREADING INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND ARIZONA... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.3N 116.7W ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM WNW OF PUNTA BAJA MEXICO ABOUT 165 MI...270 KM S OF SAN DIEGO CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for mainland Mexico south of Puerto Libertad, for the east coast of the Baja California Peninsula south of Bahia de Los Angeles, and for the west coast of the Baja California Peninsula south of Punta Eugenia. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Punta Eugenia northward along the west coast of the Baja California peninsula to the U.S./Mexico border * Bahia de Los Angeles northward along the east coast of the Baja California peninsula and then southward to Puerto Libertad in mainland Mexico A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests in southern California should monitor the progress of Kay and consult products from your local weather office. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kay was located near latitude 30.3 North, longitude 116.7 West. Kay is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn toward the west-northwest and a decrease in forward speed are expected later today, and a turn to the west is expected by late Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Kay will move parallel to the coast of the northwestern Baja California peninsula through today, and then begin to move further offshore by Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Kay is expected to degenerate into a remnant low on Saturday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) mainly to the east of the center over the Gulf of California. Wind gusts in excess of 60 mph (95 km/h) have been reported in the mountains of southern California east and northeast of San Diego. The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.27 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Kay can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP2.shtml. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring over portions of the Tropical Storm Warning area and are forecast to spread northward today. Strong winds not directly associated with Kay's core wind field are occurring across portions of southern California and extreme southwestern Arizona. For information on this wind hazard, users should see High Wind Warnings and other products from their local NWS Weather Forecast Office. STORM SURGE: Coastal flooding is possible in areas of onshore winds along the west coast of the central and northern Baja California peninsula of Mexico and along the coast of the northern Gulf of California. The flooding could be accompanied by large and damaging waves. RAINFALL: Kay is expected to produce the following rainfall totals through Saturday... Baja California: Additional rainfall of 3 to 6 inches with isolated maxima of 10 inches. Event total rainfall 6 to 10 inches, isolated maxima of 15 inches Western Sonora: Additional rainfall of 1 to 2 inches with isolated maxima of 4 inches. Event total rainfall 2 to 4 inches, isolated maxima of 8 inches Southernmost California: 2 to 4 inches with isolated maxima of 6 to 8 inches Arizona and Southern Nevada: 1 to 2 inches with isolated maxima of 3 inches These rainfall amounts could lead to flash flooding, with landslides possible across mountainous areas of Mexico. SURF: Swells generated by Kay will continue to affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next day or so. Large swells are expected to spread northward along the Baja California peninsula coast, into the Gulf of California, and to southern California during the next couple of days. These swells will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1100 AM PDT. Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Beven