871 WTPZ32 KNHC 082358 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kay Intermediate Advisory Number 18A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122022 600 PM MDT Thu Sep 08 2022 ...KAY CONTINUES TO BRING VERY HEAVY RAINS TO PORTIONS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA... SUMMARY OF 600 PM MDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.8N 114.6W ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM E OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO ABOUT 370 MI...595 KM SSE OF SAN DIEGO CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Government of Mexico has changed the Hurricane Warning to a Tropical Storm Warning from north of Punta Abreojos to San Jose De Las Palomas on the west coast of the Baja California peninsula, and discontinued the Hurricane Watch from Puerto Cortes to Punta Abreojos on the west coast of the Baja California peninsula. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Puerto Cortes northward along the west coast of the Baja California peninsula to the U.S./Mexico border * North of San Evaristo northward along the entire east coast of the Baja California peninsula and then southward to Guaymas in mainland Mexico A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests in southern California should monitor the progress of Kay and consult products from your local weather office. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 600 PM MDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Kay was located near latitude 27.8 North, longitude 114.6 West. Kay is moving toward the north-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general motion should continue through Friday. A slower northwestward to west-northwestward motion is forecast to begin by late Friday and continue into Saturday. A turn to the west is expected by Saturday night. On the forecast track, the center of Kay will pass near the northwest coast of the Baja peninsula Friday and Friday night. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 220 miles (350 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 983 mb (29.03 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Kay can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP2.shtml. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring over the Tropical Storm Warning area and are forecast to spread northward through Friday. Strong winds not directly associated with Kay's core wind field are expected across portions of southern California and extreme southwestern Arizona beginning on Friday. For information on this wind hazard, users should see High Wind Warnings and other products from their local NWS Weather Forecast Office. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is likely to produce coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds along the west coast of the central Baja California peninsula of Mexico. The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAINFALL: Kay is expected to produce the following rainfall totals through Saturday… Baja California Peninsula: 6 to 10 inches, isolated maxima of 15 inches Northwest Mainland Mexico: 2 to 4 inches, isolated maxima of 6 inches Southernmost California: 2 to 4 inches with isolated maxima of 8 inches Southwest Arizona: 1 to 2 inches with isolated maxima of 3 inches These rainfall amounts could lead to flash flooding, with landslides possible across mountainous areas of Mexico. SURF: Swells generated by Kay will continue to affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next day or so. Large swells are expected to spread northward along the Baja California peninsula coast, into the Gulf of California, and to southern California during the next couple of days. These swells will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch